Price prediction accuracy

Every night we record FPL's official projections shortly before the price-change deadline, then record the prices afterwards. This page compares the two. Nothing here is estimated or back-filled: it only covers nights we actually recorded.

Collecting data

Recording since 2026-10-11. Results appear after the first full night (1 pre-deadline and 1 post-deadline snapshots so far).

Method

Predicted change FPL Rival estimate — our reading of FPL's projection: at or above +100% counts as a predicted rise, at or below −100% as a predicted fall. FPL does not document this threshold; that is exactly why we measure it.
Actual change Recorded by FPL Rival — a player's price in our after-deadline snapshot differs from the previous one. Changes are linked to the most recent deadline FPL published.
Precision = of the changes predicted, how many happened. Recall = of the changes that happened, how many were predicted.
The signal table shows, for each value of FPL's −5…+5 signal, how often a change actually followed — an empirical view, not a claim about what FPL means by it.
Snapshots are taken by scheduled jobs that can fire up to an hour late; a missed night simply isn't evaluated.